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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 9:31:36 GMT -5
League has dried up since the season started, figured I'd post something to get those interested engaged in some conversation.
Curious what some of your takeaways/surprises/disappointments have been in the early going this season. April, doesn't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things but it sometimes shines a light on some bigger developments to look forward to.
Couple things for me personally...
Cubs - While I did expect some regression from the Cubs, especially in their rotation I didn't expect what we've seen so far. Hendricks was due for some serious regression, but his FIP is a whole run higher than it was in 2015 even. K's are down, BB's are up and velo is down a few ticks. Lackey has looked terrible early, something to watch as well. They Cubs were fortunate in terms of rotation health last year, if any of their big guys go down they could be in for a tougher race than we first thought.
Yankees - Aaron Judge always displayed monster power in the minors, but had yet to really tap in to his raw power until...this season? A lot of scouts were down on Judge coming in to this season but, if his adjustments are real (and they appear to be), Aaron Judge looks like what we've all been waiting for Giancarlo Stanton to look like. Still a chance Judge is a Richie Sexson clone, but Yankees fans have to be excited w/ a core of Sanchez/Judge w/ Gleyber and Frazier still to come.
Mets - Once again devastated by injuries. The Cubs, and the way they built their core should be a model for teams going forward. To a lesser extent the Yankees but build through offense, not pitching. The Mets had so much promise just 2 years ago and now...who the heck knows.
Jays, Rangers, Mariners and Giants all seemed to be set for one more good run, but injuries and age regression have really caught up w/ them. Still think the Rangers and Giants get in as a WC but wouldn't at all be surprised to see both teams as sellers come the trade deadline.
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Post by z - Gaz on May 9, 2017 10:48:54 GMT -5
Takeaways from the start of the season? Bumgarner is an idiot, Marte is an idiot, anyone else? Erm?
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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 11:38:10 GMT -5
Takeaways from the start of the season? Bumgarner is an idiot, Marte is an idiot, anyone else? Erm? Your only contribution is 2 players on your fantasy team. Come on!! |
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Post by AstrosGM (Matt P) on May 9, 2017 11:38:50 GMT -5
Rangers can at least sell some pieces at the deadline. Giants are fucked because the only trade-able asset they have is Eduardo Nunez.
If someone told me the Orioles were 21-10 and Tillman has thrown 5 innings, I would of told them they were batshit crazy. Regression should be a beast on Wade Miley
If the NL Central doesn't wake up, the NL west will steal both Wild Card spots.
KC? When can we start selling Hosmer, Cain, etc?
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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 11:52:23 GMT -5
Rangers can at least sell some pieces at the deadline. Giants are fucked because the only trade-able asset they have is Eduardo Nunez. If someone told me the Orioles were 21-10 and Tillman has thrown 5 innings, I would of told them they were batshit crazy. Regression should be a beast on Wade Miley If the NL Central doesn't wake up, the NL west will steal both Wild Card spots. KC? When can we start selling Hosmer, Cain, etc? Johnny Cueto is the other piece, and I definitely think there's multiple suitors lining up if they do decide to sell. |
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Post by AstrosGM (Matt P) on May 9, 2017 12:09:53 GMT -5
Cueto's contract will be a big reason why not. The way teams avoiding cracking their wallets this offseason tells me that teams are scared of the new punitive cap penalties. Not sure there's anyone that will dole out the cash for Cueto.
2017: $23.5M
2018: $21M
2019: $21M
2020: $21M
2021: $21M
Unless they think it's ironclad that he'll opt out (Not sure it is, or he could get hurt and then he won't). Yankees might if they were in the drivers' seat for a playoff run, but I think Gerrit Cole or Yu Darvish makes a ton more sense.
Cubs won't touch him. Red Sox won't touch him. Astros? Not sure. Dodgers is a hell no or over Brian Sabean's dead body. Nationals are leveraged to the hilt, so not likely. So I only see two teams who can emerge as true choices for Cueto, and they both have question marks.
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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 12:33:58 GMT -5
I hear ya, but just last offseason there were numerous teams vying for his services. That disappears in 18 months because he's had a so-so April? He's still only 31.
Fact is, Cueto was a Top 20 SP last year by almost every metric. He's the closest thing you're going to get to an Ace at the trade deadline (I would rather have Darvish, not Cole though).
There are 33 players across Major league baseball making as much as, or more than Cueto currently and that number will only go up. $20M a year for someone of that pedigree, isn't all that much.
Edit: Another tidbit...If John Lackey, at age 37 can get $16M per then I'm willing to bet teams are ok giving Cueto $21M per through his age 35 season.
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Post by AstrosGM (Matt P) on May 9, 2017 13:12:11 GMT -5
I get it, but with the Dodgers already out of the equation, Cubs only chancing it if they think they have no shot on resigning Arrieta, Yankees likely wanting to keep the cap open for 18 to chase Harper, and Red Sox might be sellers, not buyers, just not sure where the money is going to come from. It isn't the contract itself that I'm worried about. It's the cumulative effect on each of the given teams that I have thrown out, and it just feels like the days of "fuck it, I can't take the money with me when I die" days of MLB Owners has come and gone. Just look at the Marlins purchasing groups. They will likely be run more like a corporation than a Family like the Ricketts or the Steinbrenners.
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Post by z - El Guapo - retired on May 9, 2017 13:14:42 GMT -5
It's early. Things will settle in, and teams will find their appropriate levels. Two things are always true:
1. Teams are not as good as they appear to be when the are winning.
2. Teams are not as bad as they appear to be when they are losing.
But this much we can say: Chicago and Boston were both highly over-rated last year. They won, so they appeared terrific. They were not. Neither has much pitching. Regardless of how much he is getting paid, John Lackey is still John Lackey. Nice to see this year those two clubs are playing back to their respective norms, good but not great.
It's also nice to see Aaron Judge getting some much deserved attention, after the Rookie of the Year was more or less awarded to Andrew Benintendi during Spring Training. Lots of fine young players throughout baseball this year... and Yoan Moncada has not even been called up yet.
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Post by Athletics GM (Wayne) on May 9, 2017 14:20:04 GMT -5
Injuries are becoming a big factor, as usual. Something like 148 players on the DL. Is Trout the next?
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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 15:43:17 GMT -5
It's early. Things will settle in, and teams will find their appropriate levels. Two things are always true: 1. Teams are not as good as they appear to be when the are winning. 2. Teams are not as bad as they appear to be when they are losing. But this much we can say: Chicago and Boston were both highly over-rated last year. They won, so they appeared terrific. They were not. Neither has much pitching. Regardless of how much he is getting paid, John Lackey is still John Lackey. Nice to see this year those two clubs are playing back to their respective norms, good but not great. It's also nice to see Aaron Judge getting some much deserved attention, after the Rookie of the Year was more or less awarded to Andrew Benintendi during Spring Training. Lots of fine young players throughout baseball this year... and Yoan Moncada has not even been called up yet. Chicago and Boston were over rated? I'm a Cardinals fan, and even I can admit...I've never heard anyone say that. A lot of people forget, the Cubs were picked to go to the WS in 2015 as well and they probably would have if they didn't run in to a buzz saw that was the Mets rotation. Fast forward to 2016, the Cubs were easily the best team in baseball and they proved it, from start to finish. Their run differentials put them in truly historic company. I'll have to find the piece I liked that covered how truly dominant they were but, the Cubs weren't just great last year, they were all time great. They were not over rated. Boston, fizzled out in the playoffs but that's baseball. They had and still have one of the more prolific offenses in baseball along w/ a balanced roster and infinite resources. |
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Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on May 9, 2017 15:56:04 GMT -5
Yeah, it'll be tough to find a home for Cueto if SFG becomes sellers because of the market and available resources but there's always a team that comes out of nowhere to surprise some people. Houston/Balt/Clev and potentially Boston if they can't get Price back healthy.
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Post by Brewers GM (Brad) on May 9, 2017 17:44:45 GMT -5
Judge has also shown out with the glove and his BABIP is not even that high. He's not going to hit 80 homers (probably) but he could be pushing Machado and Trout for MVP over the next few years.
Ryan Schimpf is my favorite player right now. He's hitting .150 and is on pace for a 3.5 win season...on the strength of his bat alone. What?
Early season stupid-ridiculous call - Victor Martinez will lead the AL in RBI.
Dansby Swanson has been and will continue to be overrated until he consistently sucks for awhile. Never that impressed with the skill set and he looks completely overmatched right now.
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Post by z - El Guapo - retired on May 10, 2017 5:14:27 GMT -5
Cubs were easily the best team in baseball and they proved it, from start to finish.
Boston, fizzled out in the playoffs but that's baseball. They had and still have one of the more prolific offenses in baseball along w/ a balanced roster and infinite resources.
Kris Bryant is a stud. The rest of the team...? Nice, but no cigar. We think the Washingtons -- by far -- position by position, top to bottom and pitching, are way better.
Boston is a hype factory. Raise your hand if you think Jackie Bradley Junior is actually any good? In that bandbox everyone appears a terrific bat. It's like objects in your side mirror appear closer than the really are. Look at what Moreland has suddenly morphed into.
You are welcome to believe Pedroia isn't really the Travelocity Gnome if you want to, but we think scowling and getting one's uni dirty isn't how talent is measured. Yes, Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi are fine young players; but those two aside, where's the talent? A rotation of Chris Sale and the Seven Dwarfs? We prefer the Baltimore, who can actually play baseball, plus their manager is a serious savvy baseball man.
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Post by z - Gaz on May 10, 2017 6:00:49 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure you're on the wind up Guapo but i'll respond anyway as that's some crazy shit you've posted.
The Cubs last year had one of the greatest, if not the greatest, defensive teams in baseball history. Plus they hit well and their pitching was excellent. Not sure how that is "nice". It sounds fucking tremendous to me.
Orioles over the Red Sox? After Machado who would be a lock to make the Boston lineup when everyone is healthy? I like Schoop, I do, but Pedroia put up over 5 WAR last year and had a 120 wRC+. Jackie Bradley Jnr may never have a season where he hits that well but he's an excellent defender and this isn't a fantasy discussion so defence actually means something.
Also, on the topic of "bandboxes" here are the 2016 park factors, please note the HUGE (not so huge) difference between Fenway and Camden;
1. Coors Field (Rockies) 1.427.
2. Globe Life Park at Arlington (Rangers) 1.144.
3. Fenway Park (Red Sox) 1.107.
4. Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.093.
5. Camden Yards (Orioles) 1.083.
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Post by AstrosGM (Matt P) on May 10, 2017 8:39:56 GMT -5
Couple of things respond to here.
Anthony, the Jaws of Life could not pry apart Peter Angelos's wallet to get Cueto. That's laughable.
Got to agree with Gaz over Guapo. Cubs were a complete team top to bottom especially with their record setting BABIPs for their pitchers. They are missing Fowler more than they care to admit, and Schwarber's glove probably hurts them as much as his bat helps them.
Orioles rotation will fail them eventually. Bundy looks like a star, but Gausman needs to be more consistent, and the smoke show that is Wade Miley will be taken to the wood shed once the weather warms up. Orioles can only perform in one facet and that's hitting and that does not make a champion.
Boston. Couple things here.
1. JBJ. Give him more time before writing him off. He did miss most of spring training.
2. Pitching staff will be the downfall this year. I don't expect it to get better.
3. They will be the Yankees of last year. On the periphery of contending but better suited to be a seller and do some minor retooling.
4. Pedroia may never be a HOFer but he will be one of the great players that is woven into the fabric of this game. A guy that leaves it all on the field and outperforms his talent year in and year out. Pretty much a 3 to 5 WAR every season, almost without exception. Talent is one thing, results are another.
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Post by z - El Guapo - retired on May 10, 2017 9:31:43 GMT -5
Couple of things respond to here. Anthony, the Jaws of Life could not pry apart Peter Angelos's wallet to get Cueto. That's laughable. Got to agree with Gaz over Guapo. Cubs were a complete team top to bottom especially with their record setting BABIPs for their pitchers. They are missing Fowler more than they care to admit, and Schwarber's glove probably hurts them as much as his bat helps them. Orioles rotation will fail them eventually. Bundy looks like a star, but Gausman needs to be more consistent, and the smoke show that is Wade Miley will be taken to the wood shed once the weather warms up. Orioles can only perform in one facet and that's hitting and that does not make a champion. Boston. Couple things here. 1. JBJ. Give him more time before writing him off. He did miss most of spring training. 2. Pitching staff will be the downfall this year. I don't expect it to get better. 3. They will be the Yankees of last year. On the periphery of contending but better suited to be a seller and do some minor retooling. 4. Pedroia may never be a HOFer but he will be one of the great players that is woven into the fabric of this game. A guy that leaves it all on the field and outperforms his talent year in and year out. Pretty much a 3 to 5 WAR every season, almost without exception. Talent is one thing, results are another. Gotta agree with Matt over Gaz. Chicago. Coupla things here. Don't think we have ever seen a play before like Baez taking the throw from the catcher (was it Contreras or Montero?) and tagging out the sliding runner without even glancing at him. Just amazing play. Very strong glove skills. Love watching him around the bag. Matter of fact we like several Cub players... who wouldn't? Added it, they were super-hyped and probably shouldn't have won the WS. Most likely won't this year. 1. Check out their outfielders. Almora, Jay and Heyward? Maybe play Schwarber out there? 2. For that matter, where can you play Schwarber that doesn't weaken your club? 3. Bryant aside, suspect bats in the infield. 4. Rotation as suspect as bats. 5. Love Davis in the pen. Trade for help, maybe? 6. They had their bit of magic and reality will set in this year. They'll need another miracle if they hope to beat Washington? Boston. Coupla things. 1. Pedroia scowls and gets dirty on every play. Green Monster 250 away gives him 15 HR a year. His act is tiresome and plays only in the N.E. Prefer Robinson Cano, seemingly effortless, and he smiles while doing it. Ala DiMaggio. The harder the catch, the easier he makes em look. 2. They should have moved Bogaerts to 3rd when they had the chance. 3. JBJr is apparently a nice person. 4. Benintendi and Betts are excellent baseball players. 5. Year after year, Baltimore gets no credit; all they do is win ballgames. Not enough pitching? No matter... they run Ubaldo Jimenez or Chen out there and still beat you. Gausman gets hammered? Not a problem... they win anyway. Tillman out all spring? Minor issue... they win anyway. 6. Boston spends a fortune every year. Baltimore plays baseball. They probably should have kept Moncada and traded Pedroia to Chicago. heh 7. And of course the New York Yankees. Class trumps hype. |
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Post by Dodgers GM (Rob) on May 10, 2017 9:40:48 GMT -5
Guapo, you don't think that Rizzo or Zobrist are any good for the Cubs? I do agree with you in regards to their outfield.
With that said, I hope everyone keeps talking about the Cubs and Red Sox so the Dodgers could come out of nowhere and win it this year.
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Post by z - Gaz on May 10, 2017 9:57:48 GMT -5
I don't think the Red Sox will win it this year. Too many holes. There's probably less chance the Orioles win it though.
Not sure the Dodgers would be coming "out of nowhere", Rob. Not with a $250m payroll!
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Post by AstrosGM (Matt P) on May 10, 2017 10:04:22 GMT -5
Guapo, you really want to tie your assesment of JBJ to 65 PAs. Any hitter can look bad in a 65 PA stretch.
As for Baltimore, I'm not the only one piling on them. They were picked to finish poorly, and even after the first month, I'm sure there will be a number of analysts that will continue to say they will finish poorly. Their pitching will catch up to them. Mark my words.
Yankees - they finally went back to the formula that got them over the hump in '96. Build a young core and it will come. I'm not sure they can go wire to wire, especially with Gardner and Ellsbury being average at best, but they have the pieces to be a pain in the ass for a while. That's about the most praise you're going to get from a Red Sox fan.
Dodgers - if they can start putting some wins together, they seem to have a lot going for them. Joc maybe an issue though, as may Adrian G when he gets healthy. Will they be willing to sit those two when it comes to crunch time and they're still not hitting. Adrian G might become this year's Wally Pipp.
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