|
|
Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on Dec 9, 2017 13:43:17 GMT -5
ARod-Soriano is a pretty good parallel here. Yes, Soriano was worth more then than Castro now, but so was Arod than Stanton, plus Rangers threw in a lot of $ into that deal too (which ARod later crewed the Yankees out of). Very similar. Both times it was a player the yanks could replace elsewhere. Soriano had a better bat than Starlin does, but the yanks had tired of Soriano’s defense enough he had a lot less value to them than his bat or WAR suggests (ie he was already rumored to be getting moved off 2B by the yanks and swapping to LF would have crushed much of his WAR for the yanks). Very very similar type deals in that way. Starlin, tho his defense is sagging, doesn’t have the same issue of being a bad fit as much, but he’s also someone they can replace through trade/internally so it works similarly in many ways. The rangers at the time had an owner with money troubles, the marlins have new owners that don’t have money troubles but have a franchise that needs reworking and a deal like Stanton’s is an impediment to that. Sometimes trades get forced, this one just seems to make a lot sense. Giancarlo was a 7 WAR player this year. ARod was a 9 WAR player the year he was traded to NY. We're kind of splitting hairs here. They are both truly elite and both MVP caliber. Castro was a 1.8 WAR player this year, and Soriano was a 5 WAR player when he was traded. If you mirrored Castro's career, w/ Soriano's I don't know that there was ever a point Castro was more valuable to his team, than Soriano was to his. Castro is the very definition of league average. Which, isn't bad. You need those 2-3 WAR guys and he certainly fits that mold. But...he's also walking in 2 years and the Marlins likely, will still be waiting on Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers to reach the majors. |
|
|
|
Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on Dec 9, 2017 13:47:07 GMT -5
Ha, if he went to Boston I would have loved to see your response. I bet you'd have the same opinion. heh?
It's all good. It's bad for smaller markets and it's once again proof they will never have any kind of serious sustainability.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 13:57:27 GMT -5
You just don't get it. We are discussing the deal, not favorite teams.
Derek Jeter is the Chief Executive Officer of the Marlins. What has his salary to do with anything? Doesn't that same position have a salary on other clubs?
You're trying to make it sound like Jeter is in cahoots with the Yankees to send them a player. Pretty sure the Marlins have maybe dozens of guys together working on how to make the Marlins franchise successful. They got together and deemed it sensible to swallow the initial hit and move Stanton (at Stanton's own request), somewhere/anywhere and move on. Stanton had the final say, so they took the best deal they could under the circumstances. Why is that so hard for you to understand?
|
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 13:59:45 GMT -5
"they will never have any kind of serious sustainability. "
Do you believe keeping Stanton and that bloated mega contract would have helped Miami achieve serious sustainability?
|
|
|
|
Post by z - Tim on Dec 9, 2017 14:06:45 GMT -5
ARod-Soriano is a pretty good parallel here. Yes, Soriano was worth more then than Castro now, but so was Arod than Stanton, plus Rangers threw in a lot of $ into that deal too (which ARod later crewed the Yankees out of). Very similar. Both times it was a player the yanks could replace elsewhere. Soriano had a better bat than Starlin does, but the yanks had tired of Soriano’s defense enough he had a lot less value to them than his bat or WAR suggests (ie he was already rumored to be getting moved off 2B by the yanks and swapping to LF would have crushed much of his WAR for the yanks). Very very similar type deals in that way. Starlin, tho his defense is sagging, doesn’t have the same issue of being a bad fit as much, but he’s also someone they can replace through trade/internally so it works similarly in many ways. The rangers at the time had an owner with money troubles, the marlins have new owners that don’t have money troubles but have a franchise that needs reworking and a deal like Stanton’s is an impediment to that. Sometimes trades get forced, this one just seems to make a lot sense. Giancarlo was a 7 WAR player this year. ARod was a 9 WAR player the year he was traded to NY. We're kind of splitting hairs here. They are both truly elite and both MVP caliber. Castro was a 1.8 WAR player this year, and Soriano was a 5 WAR player when he was traded. If you mirrored Castro's career, w/ Soriano's I don't know that there was ever a point Castro was more valuable to his team, than Soriano was to his. Castro is the very definition of league average. Which, isn't bad. You need those 2-3 WAR guys and he certainly fits that mold. But...he's also walking in 2 years and the Marlins likely, will still be waiting on Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers to reach the majors. cant really see saying a 2war difference between arod and stanton is splitting hairs but a 3war difference between starlin and soriano makes it a bad comprison, thats actually pretty close in net. structures are similar. and the war comparisons dont take into account two impt things 1) yanks were ready to move soriano off 2b anyway this making his war a lot less and b) stanton has checkered injury history so we’re looking at his best healthy year, hes average years are much worse, in the two previous years he didnt reach 7war combined. in the 3 years before this trade he had 12.7 total WAR, in the 3 years before he was dealt Arod had 27 WAR. i know its tempting to just say both players are elite but the differences between elite guys can be much bigger than the differences between nornal above average or even allstars. Arod was coming off an historic type astretch. of course, we later learned it was infamous as much as famous, but att at the time he was considered much much better than stanton is now. |
|
|
|
Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on Dec 9, 2017 14:49:07 GMT -5
Soriano was an All Star, Castro hasn't been, nor is he likely to be moving forward. Two years after being traded to Texas, he was traded to Washington and then the Cubs where he was an MVP caliber player. Castro isn't. There's your difference.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - Tim on Dec 9, 2017 15:11:05 GMT -5
There’s definitely a difference between them, there’s just also a big difference between Arod at that time and Stanton now, Arod was Trout like at that time. Would I do Stanton and (that) Soriano for Trout and Castro. Yeah. I’d rather have trout and Castro. Just because both players are elite the difference is hardly a wash. Quite the opposite. In any case, I thought it was a very good parallel. Understand if people disagree.
|
|
|
|
Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on Dec 9, 2017 15:11:53 GMT -5
You just don't get it. We are discussing the deal, not favorite teams. Derek Jeter is the Chief Executive Officer of the Marlins. What has his salary to do with anything? Doesn't that same position have a salary on other clubs? You're trying to make it sound like Jeter is in cahoots with the Yankees to send them a player. Pretty sure the Marlins have maybe dozens of guys together working on how to make the Marlins franchise successful. They got together and deemed it sensible to swallow the initial hit and move Stanton (at Stanton's own request), somewhere/anywhere and move on. Stanton had the final say, so they took the best deal they could under the circumstances. Why is that so hard for you to understand? I do get it. I get all of it... But most of your posts are centered around your Yankee homerism. The rest of us are fans of other teams. Baseball in general. I think you're the one lacking perspective. Look online, look across the landscape of the sport. Today people are killing the Marlins for the trade they DIDN'T HAVE TO MAKE. Despite what we were told. Here's the thing that is often over looked here. The Marlins were 21st in the sport in payroll in 2017. Jeter and the new ownership wants you to think, the sport of baseball the fans of Miami to think they just couldn't afford to keep Stanton. Stanton, was the sinking ship. When, they weren't even in the top half of payrolls in baseball. The other part...if the idea is to rebuild, if the plan is to rebuild. How does cutting Stanton loose and getting marginal pieces in return help that? None of those players are contributing to that rebuild. That money, will eventually be spread elsewhere, likely on an over price veteran or marginal pieces when the FO deems it's ready to pay the money. Stanton, at least sells jerseys. And Stanton was walking in a couple years anyways. How does moving his salary (if it wasn't going to be used elsewhere) for nothing make them better either? The fact is, it doesn't. That money is going in to the FO's pockets. And here's the best part...what FA wants to play in Miami after seeing multiple teardowns and how they handled this Stanton situation? I guess in the end it worked out for Jeter and the FO? They at least have one fanbase behind their decision. I guess the best question to ask moving forward is... Where does Jeter keep his 2019 WS ring? I bet you Steinbrenner already has that +1 ready  |
|
|
|
Post by Marlins GM (Anthony) on Dec 9, 2017 15:15:03 GMT -5
The last piece, and I'll let you tell me again Guapo "I don't get it...". Jeter never had the money to buy this team. He needed baseball and other billionaires to help him. In my opinion, if you don't have the money you don't need to own the team. There is very little more profitable, than a professional sports team. It is the elite, of the elites. Jeter is going to tear it down, with no vision. With nothing but making money in his sightlines. At least Loria HAD money. Even if he was an asshole about spending it.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - Tim on Dec 9, 2017 15:22:07 GMT -5
Jeter definitely had a chance to remake the Marlins reputation to FAs post-Loria, but that ship has now sailed, certainly a lost opportunity. I get wanting out of the future risk as it impairs any rebuild even 5yrs out. Shoring up the payroll longterm is impt and no one woulda been surprised Stanton was moved. But it should have been handled in a much less adversarial way w such a franchise guy. They could have likely gotten more mid-season too. And the pool of teams stanton would go to woulda been larger (because other teams would be clear contenders).
|
|
|
|
Post by Phillies GM (Ron) on Dec 9, 2017 15:54:11 GMT -5
Did Marlins ever claim they wanted elite players for Stanton? I mean, they agreed a deal with the Giants and they've got a barren system. There are some excellent arms in that Yankees system so if they get a couple of those plus Castro and Frazier they'll not be too disappointed. If they end up with one of the bad contracts, like Ellsbury, then Jeter will get ridiculed. Until we know who those prospects are, it's too early to criticize. I just don't see the point in getting 2 years of Castro and what it is likely some meh prospects. It was always a salary dump. I'm not disputing that. But St. Louis was putting high ceiling prospects on the table, with lots of control. Giants offer wasn't great, but again lots of pieces with lots of control. I just won't at all be surprised if Castro is the headliner here. And the fact that it happened so fast tells me the Marlins just said the he'll with it, what can you give us. All true and valid points Anthony. Especially concerning STL. |
|
|
|
Post by Phillies GM (Ron) on Dec 9, 2017 15:58:24 GMT -5
Jose Devers SS/NYY and Jorge Guzman SP/NNY are the two specs, plus Starlin Castro, headed toward Miami for Stanton and $30M. I'm not sure I would've given up Guzman in this deal to be honest. Stanton held all the cards, well at least 85% and the Yankees the other 15%. The Marlins held diddly squat. |
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 16:07:56 GMT -5
You guys suggest a viable alternative would be they continue hanging on to Stanton. Hoping he finally agrees to a trade to a team not of his choosing is fairy tale stuff. What concrete evidence makes you think that might have happened? Maybe the Dodgers would finally come out with an offer? Just as likely they don't? Maybe they already told the Marlins no thanks? Or maybe they did offer and their offer was less than what the Yankees offered?
In the meantime, come July there is Giancarlo in the Marlins clubhouse, sitting around with Triple A ballplayers and some Detroit Tigers cast-offs, eating a post-game meal, costing the Marlins millions. There are even fewer fans in the stands than normal, no cable TV subscriptions sold, no concessions, not many Marlins'jerseys selling. Plus, they continue to pay the guy $30M+ per. Where exactly is the value of that?
We are in five leagues and own Jorge Guzman in four of them.
Stanton held all the cards and all the chips. Miami was hoping not to lose its shirt, holding a losing hand. In the end, they saved $265M and got a couple of players back. Not that bad for playing a terrible hand.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brewers GM (Brad) on Dec 9, 2017 16:10:26 GMT -5
I hate the Yankees. But at least he didn't sign with the Cubs.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 16:20:42 GMT -5
heh heh
|
|
|
|
Post by Phillies GM (Ron) on Dec 9, 2017 16:46:27 GMT -5
Just read that Stanton average salary on his guaranteed money is $22M which counts against the luxury tax. So they absorb $13.4 towards the luxury tax cap with trading Castro's $8.6 back to the Marlins.
They gain Stanton for Luxury cap purposes at $13.4M a year which they can drop off other moves and still get under the luxury cap next season per there stated wishes.
Say what you will about the Yankees but they know how to play the game.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 17:19:34 GMT -5
This Via mlbraderumors:
The Yankees have made it clear that they plan on trying to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and while the acquisition of Stanton would seem to run contrary to that objective, making the two work in tandem could be easier than it would initially appear. Luxury tax implications are based on the average annual value of guaranteed contracts, and Stanton’s figure towards the threshold is based off of his entire contract with the Marlins. Since that deal was for 13 years and $325MM, Stanton’s luxury tax contribution will be $22MM annually. The average annual value of Castro’s contract is $8.6MM, and the Yankees will get another $3MM of relief due to the $30MM the Marlins are conditionally including in the deal. All told, then, the Stanton trade will only add about $10.4MM to the Yankees payroll in 2018 for luxury tax purposes.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - Tim on Dec 9, 2017 17:34:09 GMT -5
it prob wont ever get released but im would be curious to know how much it costs marlins to insure against stanton not opting out (fair assumption they do buy insurance, it is 30m)
|
|
|
|
Post by z - El Guapo - retired on Dec 9, 2017 17:54:05 GMT -5
The Marlins already saved $265MM, plus they get Guzman, so whatever they get from insurance (if that's a possibility) would just be an added bonus. No matter what, they saved a lot just by getting out from under that albatross contract. If we were running the Marlins, we'd be buying the drinks at some bar tonight. They certainly can afford it now. heh
And if it's prospects they want, they can go prospecting by selling off Ozuna and Yelich, maybe Straily, too.
|
|
|
|
Post by z - Tim on Dec 9, 2017 17:59:40 GMT -5
i wouldnt mind the braves trading for starlin, not sure hes a good fit since he seems iffy at 3b, but id like to see if he had a full spring if maybe that could change. if not and say swanson needed milb time, he could play 2d and albies SS. then they can flip him when they are ready to win in 2019 |
|
